Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Wagner on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 49.1% vs MacKenzie 51.8% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 73.4%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 64.9%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 68.9%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 70.2%
29.8%
70.2%
Wagner
MacKenzie
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Wagner
MacKenzie
Last 8: Wagner 5-3 MacKenzie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
3
1
Wagner
MacKenzie
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
MacKenzie
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
MacKenzie
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
MacKenzie
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (332)
55.7% (438)
-4.2%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
80.0% (5)
-24.4%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (129)
41.4% (162)
+0.5%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKenzie shoots left. Wagner is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (334).
Wagner shoots right. MacKenzie is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Home / Away
Wagner
MacKenzie
Home
49.8% (233)
51.3% (312)
Away
48.1% (237)
52.9% (293)
By Period
Wagner
MacKenzie
P1
45.9%
50.5%
P2
47.8%
48.8%
P3
52.7%
57.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
48.9%
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 19:55 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 11:59 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 03:16 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 02:27 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 01:28 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |