Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 50.0% vs Larkin 46.2% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.6%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 90.6%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 77.5%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
MacKenzie
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
MacKenzie
Larkin
Last 8: MacKenzie 6-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
0
MacKenzie
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
MacKenzie
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
0
MacKenzie
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (564)
45.5% (391)
+7.0%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
41.4% (29)
+36.4%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
50.0% (12)
-8.3%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +36.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (467).
MacKenzie shoots left. Larkin is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Larkin
Home
52.7% (404)
47.0% (181)
Away
47.0% (368)
44.2% (251)
By Period
MacKenzie
Larkin
P1
50.0%
42.7%
P2
50.0%
52.4%
P3
49.4%
41.8%
OT
80.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
55.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2016 | 1 | 17:40 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 3 | 12:45 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 3 | 09:17 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 08:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 3 | 09:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |