Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — McKegg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.0% vs McKegg 49.2% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McKegg 53.7%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 55.0%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 50.3%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
MacKenzie
McKegg
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
MacKenzie
McKegg
Last 6: MacKenzie 3-3 McKegg
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
1
MacKenzie
McKegg
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McKegg
1
2
MacKenzie
McKegg
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
McKegg
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (3,660)
49.1% (1,143)
+5.8%
Power Play
55.9% (102)
50.0% (24)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,158)
48.8% (86)
-2.1%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McKegg shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
MacKenzie shoots left. McKegg is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
McKegg
Home
54.0% (2,527)
50.4% (554)
Away
52.1% (2,398)
48.1% (699)
By Period
MacKenzie
McKegg
P1
51.9%
48.7%
P2
53.0%
49.9%
P3
54.0%
48.6%
Final 5 min
52.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2017 | 3 | 16:31 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 3 | 12:55 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 2 | 02:37 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 1 | 16:32 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 1 | 11:25 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |