Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). MacKenzie wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Dowell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.0% vs Dowell 48.8% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
MacKenzie leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 64.3%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 85.1%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 74.1%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 76.0%
76.0%
24.0%
MacKenzie
Dowell
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
MacKenzie
Dowell
Last 10: MacKenzie 4-6 Dowell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
MacKenzie
Dowell
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
5
2
MacKenzie
Dowell
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
5
4
MacKenzie
Dowell
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Dowell
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (3,660)
49.1% (759)
+5.8%
Power Play
55.9% (102)
38.5% (13)
+17.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,158)
46.9% (81)
-0.2%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowell shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
MacKenzie shoots left. Dowell is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Dowell
Home
54.0% (2,527)
51.8% (413)
Away
52.1% (2,398)
45.8% (443)
By Period
MacKenzie
Dowell
P1
51.9%
50.4%
P2
53.0%
46.6%
P3
54.0%
49.7%
OT
65.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.9%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Dowell
38.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2011 | 3 | 06:47 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 1 | 09:18 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 1 | 05:28 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 15:10 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 08:24 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 05:51 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 18, 2011 | 2 | 19:46 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 18, 2011 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 3 | 02:09 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 2 | 02:22 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 1 | 03:57 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 3 | 05:50 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 2 | 02:47 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 3 | 02:10 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 2 | 13:11 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 1 | 03:00 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |