Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 52.9% vs Pavelski 55.5% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 79.7%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 51.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 63.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
MacKenzie
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
MacKenzie
Pavelski
Last 9: MacKenzie 6-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
MacKenzie
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
5
0
MacKenzie
Pavelski
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (737)
55.0% (785)
+0.1%
Power Play
36.8% (19)
62.7% (201)
-25.9%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (266)
52.2% (161)
-3.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. MacKenzie is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (360).
MacKenzie shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Pavelski
Home
54.9% (506)
58.1% (580)
Away
51.4% (516)
53.8% (567)
By Period
MacKenzie
Pavelski
P1
54.5%
53.4%
P2
55.6%
58.6%
P3
48.2%
56.4%
OT
70.0%
36.8%
Final 5 min
53.0%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2014 | OT | 04:00 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 04:22 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 15:59 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |