Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). MacKenzie wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — McCarthy shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.7% vs McCarthy 47.6% (+12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 51.4%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 83.5%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 79.5%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
MacKenzie
McCarthy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
MacKenzie
McCarthy
Last 8: MacKenzie 5-3 McCarthy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
McCarthy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
4
2
MacKenzie
McCarthy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
McCarthy
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (370)
43.9% (41)
+11.2%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
0.0% (2)
+55.6%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +55.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarthy shoots left. MacKenzie is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (293).
MacKenzie shoots left. McCarthy is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (31).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
McCarthy
Home
56.1% (228)
46.2% (26)
Away
52.7% (201)
35.3% (17)
By Period
MacKenzie
McCarthy
P1
53.4%
40.0%
P2
55.1%
64.3%
P3
53.9%
21.4%
Final 5 min
54.2%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.5%
McCarthy
60.0%▲
48.5%
41.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 13:23 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 08:17 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 04:44 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | John McCarthy |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 17:26 | Offensive | John McCarthy |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 15:53 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 07:55 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 07:53 | Neutral | John McCarthy |