Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.9%). Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.8% vs Tavares 52.7% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 75.5%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 61.6%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 51.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
MacKenzie
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
MacKenzie
Tavares
Last 6: MacKenzie 4-2 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
MacKenzie
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
4
0
MacKenzie
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (438)
52.9% (1,239)
+2.8%
Power Play
80.0% (5)
54.7% (309)
+25.3%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (162)
50.0% (178)
-8.6%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. MacKenzie is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (340).
MacKenzie shoots left. Tavares is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,124).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Tavares
Home
51.3% (312)
55.0% (864)
Away
52.9% (293)
50.8% (862)
By Period
MacKenzie
Tavares
P1
50.5%
51.8%
P2
48.8%
51.4%
P3
57.4%
54.5%
Final 5 min
54.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
52.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 18:36 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 04:43 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 1 | 06:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |