Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Goc on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Goc shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.7% vs Goc 49.9% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 56.5%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 50.1%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 56.7%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
MacKenzie
Goc
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
MacKenzie
Goc
Last 5: MacKenzie 3-2 Goc
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Goc
1
2
MacKenzie
Goc
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Goc
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Goc
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Goc
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (384)
50.3% (590)
+1.5%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
47.3% (55)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
52.5% (61)
46.2% (39)
+6.3%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Goc shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (323).
MacKenzie shoots left. Goc is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Goc
Home
51.7% (232)
52.7% (283)
Away
52.3% (241)
48.0% (410)
By Period
MacKenzie
Goc
P1
47.9%
50.7%
P2
51.8%
50.7%
P3
55.4%
49.8%
OT
100.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
49.5%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
52.0%
Goc
52.0%▼
55.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2011 | 1 | 06:42 | Offensive | Marcel Goc |
| Dec 1, 2010 | OT | 04:00 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 22, 2010 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 22, 2010 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 22, 2010 | 1 | 17:19 | Offensive | Marcel Goc |