Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 59.4% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 57.2% vs Spaling 46.9% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 60.4%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 89.2%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 81.9%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 79.1%
79.1%
20.9%
MacKenzie
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
MacKenzie
Spaling
Last 5: MacKenzie 4-1 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Spaling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Spaling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
1
MacKenzie
Spaling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
61.0% (264)
48.4% (419)
+12.6%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
30.0% (10)
+70.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
32.1% (53)
+17.0%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +70.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. MacKenzie is 59.4% vs left-shot opponents (234).
MacKenzie shoots left. Spaling is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Spaling
Home
62.1% (145)
52.2% (251)
Away
57.3% (178)
39.8% (231)
By Period
MacKenzie
Spaling
P1
51.6%
40.6%
P2
59.8%
43.9%
P3
65.8%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
59.4%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2013 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 2 | 16:36 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 19, 2013 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 3 | 07:34 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 3 | 04:44 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |