Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. MacKenzie wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.0% vs Sturm 56.1% (-3.2%)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 57.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 52.0%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 51.0%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
MacKenzie
Sturm
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (3,660)
57.1% (2,719)
-2.2%
Power Play
55.9% (102)
61.3% (62)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,158)
51.0% (498)
-4.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
MacKenzie shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Sturm
Home
54.0% (2,527)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
52.1% (2,398)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
MacKenzie
Sturm
P1
51.9%
56.5%
P2
53.0%
54.9%
P3
54.0%
57.4%
OT
65.7%
60.6%
Final 5 min
52.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%