Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.7% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.7%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 52.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Last 6: MacKenzie 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
0
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (370)
52.5% (1,177)
+2.6%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
54.6% (130)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
52.8% (108)
-3.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKenzie is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (293).
MacKenzie shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Home
56.1% (228)
54.9% (669)
Away
52.7% (201)
51.0% (774)
By Period
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
P1
53.4%
52.4%
P2
55.1%
56.1%
P3
53.9%
49.8%
OT
100.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
54.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2012 | 3 | 17:58 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 3 | 00:51 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 04:37 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 24, 2012 | 3 | 05:35 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |