Derek MacKenzie vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 35 meetings). MacKenzie wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.0% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
MacKenzie leads 35-34 in 69 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.2%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 58.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
34
(69 meetings)
35
34
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Last 10: MacKenzie 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
21
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
27
8
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
35 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
5
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (3,660)
56.2% (15,260)
-1.3%
Power Play
55.9% (102)
58.8% (3,445)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,158)
51.4% (2,811)
-4.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
MacKenzie shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Home
54.0% (2,527)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
52.1% (2,398)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
P1
51.9%
55.6%
P2
53.0%
57.0%
P3
54.0%
55.1%
OT
65.7%
62.2%
Final 5 min
52.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2018 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2018 | 2 | 08:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2018 | 2 | 01:42 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 2, 2018 | 1 | 16:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 3 | 17:11 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 3 | 12:30 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 1 | 15:39 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 1 | 05:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 2 | 11:17 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 2 | 02:32 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 1 | 02:58 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |