Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKenzie wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.0% vs Smyth 45.8% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 56.4%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 92.6%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 83.2%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
MacKenzie
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
MacKenzie
Smyth
Last 9: MacKenzie 6-3 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
0
MacKenzie
Smyth
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Smyth
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
2
MacKenzie
Smyth
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (3,660)
45.2% (456)
+9.7%
Power Play
55.9% (102)
51.8% (164)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,158)
23.3% (43)
+23.4%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
MacKenzie shoots left. Smyth is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (434).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Smyth
Home
54.0% (2,527)
49.7% (340)
Away
52.1% (2,398)
40.5% (326)
By Period
MacKenzie
Smyth
P1
51.9%
48.3%
P2
53.0%
41.7%
P3
54.0%
46.5%
OT
65.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
52.9%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2013 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 3 | 02:04 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 3 | 01:51 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 1 | 14:59 | Neutral | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 1 | 07:28 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 10, 2013 | 3 | 02:44 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 10, 2013 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 18:00 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |