Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Cogliano wins 31.0% vs left-shot opponents — Roy shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 42.7% vs Roy 46.2% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cogliano 68.8%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 56.1%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 67.1%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Cogliano
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cogliano
Roy
Last 7: Cogliano 2-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
1
0
Cogliano
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
5
Cogliano
Roy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
33.8% (77)
45.3% (506)
-11.5%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
57.4% (68)
-57.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (14)
37.0% (73)
+5.9%
On power play, Roy has a +57.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Cogliano is 31.0% vs left-shot opponents (71).
Cogliano shoots left. Roy is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Roy
Home
29.4% (51)
44.9% (354)
Away
41.5% (41)
46.4% (293)
By Period
Cogliano
Roy
P1
35.7%
47.0%
P2
31.6%
47.2%
P3
37.8%
42.5%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
34.8%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
45.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 11:08 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 03:18 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 1, 2013 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |