Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Shaw on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Shaw wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Roy shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 44.1% vs Roy 47.5% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 79.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 59.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 64.5%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Shaw
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Shaw
Roy
Last 6: Shaw 4-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Shaw
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
4
1
Shaw
Roy
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (636)
43.0% (351)
+0.9%
Power Play
32.4% (37)
61.3% (106)
-28.9%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (11)
33.3% (9)
+12.2%
On power play, Roy has a +28.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Shaw is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (469).
Shaw shoots right. Roy is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Shaw
Roy
Home
46.3% (363)
52.3% (241)
Away
39.9% (321)
41.3% (225)
By Period
Shaw
Roy
P1
47.4%
51.6%
P2
43.0%
46.4%
P3
40.0%
43.1%
OT
46.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.8%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.3%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2013 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 3 | 05:19 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 3 | 05:12 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 2 | 01:51 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |