Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.4% vs 47.2%). Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs O'Brien 47.6% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 74.8%
Defensive zone
O'Brien 57.4%
Neutral zone
O'Brien 53.0%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Roy
O'Brien
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Roy
O'Brien
Last 5: Roy 3-2 O'Brien
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
O'Brien
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Brien
0
1
Roy
O'Brien
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
O'Brien
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
O'Brien
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
48.8% (451)
-2.4%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
62.5% (8)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
41.8% (141)
+5.0%
On power play, O'Brien has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Brien shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Roy shoots left. O'Brien is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (412).
Home / Away
Roy
O'Brien
Home
49.5% (1,982)
47.1% (274)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
47.3% (330)
By Period
Roy
O'Brien
P1
47.6%
47.2%
P2
46.2%
49.8%
P3
48.5%
43.6%
OT
43.1%
75.0%
Final 5 min
47.0%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
O'Brien
46.0%▼
48.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2012 | OT | 03:53 | Defensive | Jim O'Brien |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 11:07 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 11:05 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 09:28 | Neutral | Jim O'Brien |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Derek Roy |