Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 25-15 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 88.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 93.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 94.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 91.6%
8.4%
91.6%
Roy
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
15
(40 meetings)
25
15
Roy
Pavelski
Last 10: Roy 6-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
12
4
Roy
Pavelski
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
9
4
Roy
Pavelski
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
7
Roy
Pavelski
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
53.6% (8,791)
-7.2%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
58.2% (2,122)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
50.9% (1,138)
-4.1%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Roy shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Roy
Pavelski
Home
49.5% (1,982)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Roy
Pavelski
P1
47.6%
53.5%
P2
46.2%
55.2%
P3
48.5%
53.9%
OT
43.1%
52.3%
Final 5 min
47.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2015 | 2 | 02:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 1 | 19:40 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 1 | 06:15 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 1 | 10:17 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 04:38 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 04:25 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 17:44 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 09:52 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 09:33 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 2 | 00:40 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 11:37 | Offensive | Derek Roy |