Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Roy wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Thornton 54.3% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 63.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 62.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 70.4%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Roy
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Roy
Thornton
Last 10: Roy 3-7 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
3
Roy
Thornton
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Roy
Thornton
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
5
Roy
Thornton
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
53.5% (6,640)
-7.1%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
57.2% (1,387)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
56.7% (427)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Roy shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Home / Away
Roy
Thornton
Home
49.5% (1,982)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Roy
Thornton
P1
47.6%
55.0%
P2
46.2%
53.3%
P3
48.5%
54.4%
OT
43.1%
56.4%
Final 5 min
47.0%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2015 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 1 | 18:03 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 1 | 15:29 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 1 | 12:58 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 08:34 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 3 | 11:18 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 17:27 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 02:59 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 2 | 13:26 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |