Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings). Roy wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Toews 57.8% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 32-18 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 95.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 93.0%
Neutral zone
Roy 96.2%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 95.2%
95.2%
4.8%
Roy
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
32
(50 meetings)
18
32
Roy
Toews
Last 10: Roy 4-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
8
7
Roy
Toews
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
11
Roy
Toews
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
7
14
Roy
Toews
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
57.1% (12,906)
-10.7%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
63.2% (3,220)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
53.6% (1,808)
-6.8%
On even strength, Toews has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Roy shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,532).
Home / Away
Roy
Toews
Home
49.5% (1,982)
59.6% (9,086)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
56.1% (8,879)
By Period
Roy
Toews
P1
47.6%
58.7%
P2
46.2%
57.7%
P3
48.5%
57.2%
OT
43.1%
58.8%
Final 5 min
47.0%
58.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2015 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 6, 2015 | 1 | 14:48 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 6, 2015 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 1 | 19:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 3 | 17:18 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 3 | 07:36 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 1 | 15:03 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 16:02 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 1 | 13:39 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 16, 2013 | 2 | 05:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2013 | OT | 00:22 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 3 | 16:32 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Derek Roy |