Scouting Report
Mark Arcobello holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Arcobello on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Roy wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Arcobello shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 45.3% vs Arcobello 50.1% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 63.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 66.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 65.2%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Roy
Arcobello
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Roy
Arcobello
Last 6: Roy 1-5 Arcobello
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arcobello
0
2
Roy
Arcobello
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arcobello
1
3
Roy
Arcobello
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Arcobello
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (784)
50.0% (858)
-5.2%
Power Play
45.0% (111)
62.1% (58)
-17.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (14)
26.1% (23)
+16.8%
On power play, Arcobello has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arcobello shoots right. Roy is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Roy shoots left. Arcobello is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Home / Away
Roy
Arcobello
Home
45.8% (421)
52.7% (478)
Away
43.9% (488)
47.5% (461)
By Period
Roy
Arcobello
P1
44.9%
52.4%
P2
43.6%
51.7%
P3
46.4%
46.4%
OT
35.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.1%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
44.8%
Arcobello
58.0%▲
56.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2014 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 1 | 16:54 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 1 | 02:16 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Oct 29, 2014 | 2 | 07:49 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 29, 2014 | 2 | 05:49 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Oct 29, 2014 | 2 | 01:40 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |