Scouting Report
Mike Santorelli holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.5% vs Santorelli 51.1% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 74.6%
Defensive zone
Santorelli 81.9%
Neutral zone
Santorelli 56.6%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Roy
Santorelli
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Roy
Santorelli
Last 5: Roy 4-1 Santorelli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
Santorelli
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Santorelli
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Santorelli
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (351)
50.5% (333)
-7.5%
Power Play
61.3% (106)
55.4% (56)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
53.3% (30)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Santorelli has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Santorelli shoots right. Roy is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Roy shoots left. Santorelli is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (310).
Home / Away
Roy
Santorelli
Home
52.3% (241)
54.2% (179)
Away
41.3% (225)
49.2% (240)
By Period
Roy
Santorelli
P1
51.6%
49.6%
P2
46.4%
51.8%
P3
43.1%
52.7%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.0%
Santorelli
40.0%▼
46.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2013 | 3 | 09:33 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |
| Oct 25, 2013 | 3 | 05:17 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 25, 2013 | 2 | 12:36 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 25, 2013 | 2 | 12:27 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 25, 2013 | 1 | 03:57 | Neutral | Derek Roy |