Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 51.1%). Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 50.5% vs Backstrom 50.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 50.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 72.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 57.8%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Roy
Backstrom
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Roy
Backstrom
Last 9: Roy 6-3 Backstrom
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Roy
Backstrom
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
3
0
Roy
Backstrom
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Backstrom
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Backstrom
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (1,010)
49.0% (496)
+1.3%
Power Play
53.3% (169)
55.6% (151)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
57.9% (38)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, Backstrom has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backstrom shoots left. Roy is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (872).
Roy shoots left. Backstrom is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Roy
Backstrom
Home
52.4% (683)
53.5% (368)
Away
48.6% (646)
48.3% (323)
By Period
Roy
Backstrom
P1
48.3%
49.1%
P2
49.5%
51.0%
P3
53.9%
53.5%
OT
48.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
50.6%
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2011 | 2 | 18:40 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 30, 2011 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 3 | 15:12 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 3 | 00:57 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 2 | 08:53 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 1 | 05:04 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 06:39 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |