Scouting Report
R.J. Umberger holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Umberger on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Umberger shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 46.2% vs Umberger 50.0% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Umberger 57.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 70.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 55.9%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Roy
Umberger
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Roy
Umberger
Last 7: Roy 3-4 Umberger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Umberger
1
2
Roy
Umberger
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Roy
Umberger
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Umberger
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (506)
50.0% (72)
-4.7%
Power Play
57.4% (68)
50.0% (26)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (73)
50.0% (10)
-13.0%
On penalty kill, Umberger has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Umberger shoots left. Roy is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Roy shoots left. Umberger is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Roy
Umberger
Home
44.9% (354)
54.5% (55)
Away
46.4% (293)
45.3% (53)
By Period
Roy
Umberger
P1
47.0%
54.5%
P2
47.2%
53.1%
P3
42.5%
45.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
45.6%
Umberger
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2013 | OT | 02:38 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 26, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | R.J. Umberger |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 04:00 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 00:16 | Neutral | R.J. Umberger |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |