Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Horak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Horak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Horak 43.9% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Horak leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Horak 70.3%
Defensive zone
Horak 79.8%
Neutral zone
Horak 75.3%
Result
Roman Horak favored at 76.0%
24.0%
76.0%
Roy
Horak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Roy
Horak
Last 10: Roy 3-7 Horak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horak
0
3
Roy
Horak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horak
2
3
Roy
Horak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horak
1
2
Roy
Horak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Horak
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
41.8% (594)
+4.6%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
51.4% (37)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
57.9% (19)
-11.1%
On penalty kill, Horak has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horak shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Roy shoots left. Horak is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (417).
Home / Away
Roy
Horak
Home
49.5% (1,982)
43.7% (325)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
42.2% (327)
By Period
Roy
Horak
P1
47.6%
42.4%
P2
46.2%
44.2%
P3
48.5%
42.6%
OT
43.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.0%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Horak
38.0%▼
46.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2013 | 2 | 01:16 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 3 | 17:28 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 3 | 01:06 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Roman Horak |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 2 | 09:29 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Roman Horak |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 1 | 13:49 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 3 | 10:31 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 3 | 05:12 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 2 | 05:43 | Defensive | Roman Horak |