Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Roy wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 46.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 42.4% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 65.6%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 56.9%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 59.2%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Roy
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Roy
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Roy 3-7 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
4
Roy
Nugent-Hopkins
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
2
Roy
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (506)
39.8% (508)
+5.5%
Power Play
57.4% (68)
60.5% (38)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (73)
20.0% (5)
+17.0%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Roy is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Roy shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 40.5% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Roy
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
44.9% (354)
42.6% (237)
Away
46.4% (293)
39.8% (314)
By Period
Roy
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
47.0%
33.3%
P2
47.2%
45.1%
P3
42.5%
44.6%
OT
50.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
41.4%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
45.6%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2013 | 3 | 13:10 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 3 | 13:05 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 11:31 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 1 | 01:59 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 1 | 00:13 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 1 | 12:11 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 1 | 05:12 | Defensive | Derek Roy |