Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 46.2% vs O'Reilly 52.3% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 63.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 62.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Roy
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Roy
O'Reilly
Last 7: Roy 4-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Roy
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (506)
53.6% (392)
-8.3%
Power Play
57.4% (68)
47.2% (36)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (73)
50.0% (28)
-13.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Roy is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Roy shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Roy
O'Reilly
Home
44.9% (354)
54.4% (237)
Away
46.4% (293)
51.1% (219)
By Period
Roy
O'Reilly
P1
47.0%
50.3%
P2
47.2%
51.4%
P3
42.5%
55.7%
OT
50.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
41.4%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
45.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 02:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 06:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 08:17 | Defensive | Derek Roy |