Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Roy wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 18-13 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 73.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 88.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 86.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 82.3%
17.7%
82.3%
Roy
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
13
(31 meetings)
18
13
Roy
O'Reilly
Last 10: Roy 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
8
4
Roy
O'Reilly
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
6
Roy
O'Reilly
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
5
3
Roy
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
56.2% (15,260)
-9.8%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
58.8% (3,445)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
51.4% (2,811)
-4.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Roy shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Roy
O'Reilly
Home
49.5% (1,982)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Roy
O'Reilly
P1
47.6%
55.6%
P2
46.2%
57.0%
P3
48.5%
55.1%
OT
43.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2015 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 30, 2015 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 30, 2015 | 1 | 03:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2015 | 1 | 03:38 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 30, 2015 | 1 | 00:23 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 1 | 17:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 3 | 11:11 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 02:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 06:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 08:17 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 14, 2012 | OT | 04:54 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 14, 2012 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 14, 2012 | 3 | 13:28 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 14, 2012 | 3 | 08:47 | Defensive | Derek Roy |