Scouting Report
Saku Koivu holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Roy wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.0% vs Koivu 52.6% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 63.5%
Defensive zone
Koivu 86.2%
Neutral zone
Koivu 69.3%
Result
Saku Koivu favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Roy
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Roy
Koivu
Last 5: Roy 4-1 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Koivu
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
3
1
Roy
Koivu
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (380)
52.7% (873)
-8.8%
Power Play
52.8% (106)
63.1% (168)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (38)
47.9% (267)
+7.4%
On power play, Koivu has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Roy is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Roy shoots left. Koivu is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (960).
Home / Away
Roy
Koivu
Home
51.6% (283)
56.7% (601)
Away
40.4% (245)
49.6% (738)
By Period
Roy
Koivu
P1
47.8%
51.2%
P2
41.1%
55.2%
P3
49.7%
51.3%
OT
41.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
42.4%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2010 | 3 | 15:36 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 3 | 07:14 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 2 | 14:54 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 1 | 10:05 | Neutral | Derek Roy |