Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.4% vs 47.2%). Look for Connolly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Connolly 47.3% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 16-5 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 56.1%
Defensive zone
Connolly 56.8%
Neutral zone
Connolly 57.8%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Roy
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
16
(21 meetings)
5
16
Roy
Connolly
Last 10: Roy 2-8 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
5
Roy
Connolly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
9
Roy
Connolly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
4
2
Roy
Connolly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
47.4% (1,307)
-1.0%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
50.2% (251)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
41.9% (186)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Roy shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Roy
Connolly
Home
49.5% (1,982)
48.5% (870)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Roy
Connolly
P1
47.6%
47.4%
P2
46.2%
47.7%
P3
48.5%
47.0%
OT
43.1%
37.8%
Final 5 min
47.0%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2012 | OT | 02:10 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 09:19 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 1 | 09:32 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 1 | 09:14 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 3 | 15:59 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 2 | 13:21 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 2 | 10:37 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 1 | 11:56 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 2 | 18:49 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 2 | 09:22 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 1 | 12:59 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 1 | 09:23 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |