Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gauthier on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gauthier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.2% vs Gauthier 53.0% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 84.2%
Defensive zone
Ryan 57.0%
Neutral zone
Ryan 81.0%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Ryan
Gauthier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Ryan
Gauthier
Last 6: Ryan 4-2 Gauthier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Gauthier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Gauthier
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gauthier
1
2
Ryan
Gauthier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Gauthier
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (594)
53.3% (420)
+5.8%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
50.0% (8)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (107)
63.2% (19)
-5.3%
On even strength, Ryan has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gauthier shoots left. Ryan is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (544).
Ryan shoots right. Gauthier is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Ryan
Gauthier
Home
57.0% (398)
54.4% (237)
Away
59.5% (358)
52.9% (210)
By Period
Ryan
Gauthier
P1
56.2%
53.2%
P2
56.9%
57.8%
P3
61.1%
49.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Gauthier
40.0%▼
45.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2019 | 3 | 15:49 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 4, 2019 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 4, 2019 | 3 | 03:15 | Neutral | Frederik Gauthier |
| Mar 4, 2019 | 2 | 05:10 | Neutral | Frederik Gauthier |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 1 | 05:38 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |