Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Harkins on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Harkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Harkins 52.4% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 54.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 50.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 53.9%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Ryan
Harkins
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Ryan
Harkins
Last 7: Ryan 3-4 Harkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Harkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Harkins
1
2
Ryan
Harkins
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Harkins
1
2
Ryan
Harkins
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Harkins
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
51.1% (403)
+5.5%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
80.0% (10)
-26.8%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
59.4% (69)
-11.6%
On power play, Harkins has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Harkins shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Harkins is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Home / Away
Ryan
Harkins
Home
56.2% (2,559)
55.7% (244)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
50.0% (238)
By Period
Ryan
Harkins
P1
55.1%
60.8%
P2
54.7%
45.1%
P3
56.0%
53.1%
Final 5 min
52.5%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2021 | 3 | 10:53 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 15:25 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 15:12 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 12:44 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |