Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Thornton 54.3% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 61.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 71.9%
Neutral zone
Ryan 58.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Ryan
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Ryan
Thornton
Last 10: Ryan 8-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
3
Ryan
Thornton
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
5
Ryan
Thornton
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
6
0
Ryan
Thornton
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
53.5% (6,640)
+3.1%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
57.2% (1,387)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
56.7% (427)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Home / Away
Ryan
Thornton
Home
56.2% (2,559)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Ryan
Thornton
P1
55.1%
55.0%
P2
54.7%
53.3%
P3
56.0%
54.4%
OT
58.3%
56.4%
Final 5 min
52.5%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2020 | 3 | 14:46 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 10, 2020 | 3 | 01:35 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 10, 2020 | 3 | 01:26 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 10, 2020 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 3 | 05:38 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 10:36 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 1 | 19:02 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 17:24 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 1 | 04:48 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 1 | 10:19 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 2 | 04:27 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |