Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.2% vs Thornton 52.4% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 67.3%
Defensive zone
Ryan 90.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 87.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Ryan
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Ryan
Thornton
Last 8: Ryan 6-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
2
Ryan
Thornton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (594)
52.5% (638)
+6.6%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
57.1% (35)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (107)
50.0% (2)
+7.9%
On power play, Thornton has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Ryan is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (544).
Ryan shoots right. Thornton is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (236).
Home / Away
Ryan
Thornton
Home
57.0% (398)
54.8% (341)
Away
59.5% (358)
50.6% (334)
By Period
Ryan
Thornton
P1
56.2%
55.2%
P2
56.9%
56.5%
P3
61.1%
47.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2019 | 3 | 05:38 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 10:36 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 1 | 19:02 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 17:24 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 1 | 04:48 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |