Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Larsson 49.5% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 20-13 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 91.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 71.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 86.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Ryan
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
13
(33 meetings)
20
13
Ryan
Larsson
Last 10: Ryan 7-3 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
11
2
Ryan
Larsson
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
4
6
Ryan
Larsson
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Ryan
Larsson
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
50.5% (4,382)
+6.1%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
47.7% (153)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
43.8% (714)
+4.0%
On even strength, Ryan has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Larsson is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,847).
Home / Away
Ryan
Larsson
Home
56.2% (2,559)
51.2% (2,493)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
48.0% (2,756)
By Period
Ryan
Larsson
P1
55.1%
51.6%
P2
54.7%
49.7%
P3
56.0%
47.2%
OT
58.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
52.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 10:58 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 07:00 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 15:02 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 03:57 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 12:55 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 12:47 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 10:41 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 02:49 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 1 | 02:12 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 3 | 16:19 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 3 | 05:05 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |