Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Graovac shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Graovac 47.1% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Graovac leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Graovac 58.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 71.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 56.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Ryan
Graovac
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Ryan
Graovac
Last 10: Ryan 5-5 Graovac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
1
Ryan
Graovac
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Graovac
1
2
Ryan
Graovac
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Ryan
Graovac
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Graovac
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
46.5% (497)
+10.1%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
50.0% (4)
+3.2%
On even strength, Ryan has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Graovac shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Graovac is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (158).
Home / Away
Ryan
Graovac
Home
56.2% (2,559)
47.6% (233)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
45.5% (268)
By Period
Ryan
Graovac
P1
55.1%
41.7%
P2
54.7%
47.4%
P3
56.0%
51.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Graovac
48.0%▲
43.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2021 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| May 19, 2021 | 2 | 04:41 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| May 18, 2021 | 3 | 09:28 | Neutral | Tyler Graovac |
| May 18, 2021 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| May 18, 2021 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| May 18, 2021 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Tyler Graovac |
| May 13, 2021 | 3 | 04:36 | Neutral | Tyler Graovac |
| May 13, 2021 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Tyler Graovac |
| May 13, 2021 | 1 | 01:29 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Tyler Graovac |