Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Trenin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Trenin 43.6% (+13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 91.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 91.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 91.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
Ryan
Trenin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Ryan
Trenin
Last 5: Ryan 4-1 Trenin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Trenin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
1
Ryan
Trenin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Trenin
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
42.8% (355)
+13.8%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
33.3% (6)
+19.9%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
41.0% (105)
+6.8%
On power play, Ryan has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trenin shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Trenin is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Ryan
Trenin
Home
56.2% (2,559)
45.6% (248)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
38.5% (218)
By Period
Ryan
Trenin
P1
55.1%
42.4%
P2
54.7%
47.7%
P3
56.0%
35.2%
Final 5 min
52.5%
39.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Trenin
42.0%▲
40.5%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 18:52 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:13 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 06:26 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 01:52 | Neutral | Yakov Trenin |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 01:15 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |