Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.2% vs Smith 49.2% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 51.0%
Defensive zone
Smith 64.2%
Neutral zone
Smith 51.1%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Ryan
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Ryan
Smith
Last 5: Ryan 2-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Ryan
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Ryan
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (594)
50.9% (666)
+8.2%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
70.0% (10)
-20.9%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (107)
39.6% (144)
+18.3%
On power play, Smith has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Ryan is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (544).
Ryan shoots right. Smith is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Home / Away
Ryan
Smith
Home
57.0% (398)
50.9% (405)
Away
59.5% (358)
47.5% (415)
By Period
Ryan
Smith
P1
56.2%
47.1%
P2
56.9%
49.6%
P3
61.1%
50.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 11:23 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 08:34 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 2 | 08:07 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 2 | 01:17 | Defensive | Zack Smith |