Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Smith 50.6% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 54.3%
Defensive zone
Ryan 51.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 54.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Ryan
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Ryan
Smith
Last 10: Ryan 5-5 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
3
Ryan
Smith
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
2
Ryan
Smith
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
51.6% (5,265)
+5.0%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
51.2% (342)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
45.3% (985)
+2.5%
On even strength, Ryan has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Smith is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,394).
Home / Away
Ryan
Smith
Home
56.2% (2,559)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Ryan
Smith
P1
55.1%
49.9%
P2
54.7%
50.0%
P3
56.0%
51.9%
OT
58.3%
51.6%
Final 5 min
52.5%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 11:23 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 08:34 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 2 | 08:07 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 2 | 01:17 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 08:24 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 01:12 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 2 | 00:16 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 1 | 02:46 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |