Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Nieves wins 42.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nieves 46.1% vs Stepan 47.9% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 65.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 51.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 54.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Nieves
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nieves
Stepan
Last 5: Nieves 3-2 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
Nieves
Stepan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nieves
2
0
Nieves
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nieves
1
0
Nieves
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nieves
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (208)
47.0% (1,210)
-1.8%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
51.7% (232)
+48.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (8)
47.2% (108)
-47.2%
On power play, Nieves has a +48.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Nieves is 42.5% vs right-shot opponents (73).
Nieves shoots left. Stepan is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,079).
Home / Away
Nieves
Stepan
Home
51.0% (100)
48.2% (761)
Away
38.7% (119)
47.3% (789)
By Period
Nieves
Stepan
P1
40.5%
46.3%
P2
50.6%
50.4%
P3
40.7%
46.3%
Final 5 min
48.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nieves
50.0%▲
40.5%
44.3%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2018 | 2 | 13:35 | Neutral | Boo Nieves |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 1 | 09:45 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 15:00 | Defensive | Boo Nieves |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 05:17 | Defensive | Boo Nieves |