Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — McKegg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs McKegg 46.9% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 51.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 64.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 53.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Stepan
McKegg
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Stepan
McKegg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
0
1
Stepan
McKegg
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
McKegg
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
McKegg
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
45.9% (146)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
35.7% (14)
+29.0%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +29.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McKegg shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. McKegg is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (57).
Home / Away
Stepan
McKegg
Home
54.5% (222)
45.3% (64)
Away
57.2% (222)
44.8% (96)
By Period
Stepan
McKegg
P1
57.5%
48.1%
P2
54.7%
50.0%
P3
55.9%
37.9%
Final 5 min
57.5%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 2 | 14:42 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |