Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Roslovic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Roslovic 45.1% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 53.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 79.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 64.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Stepan
Roslovic
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Stepan
Roslovic
Last 9: Stepan 8-1 Roslovic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Roslovic
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Roslovic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Roslovic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Roslovic
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
44.9% (2,997)
+1.6%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
48.1% (339)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
34.3% (105)
+9.9%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roslovic shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Roslovic is 43.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,065).
Home / Away
Stepan
Roslovic
Home
47.6% (6,608)
44.0% (1,737)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
45.8% (1,704)
By Period
Stepan
Roslovic
P1
47.5%
45.5%
P2
45.6%
44.6%
P3
46.8%
44.9%
OT
40.7%
31.8%
Final 5 min
47.5%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Roslovic
50.0%▼
53.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2022 | 1 | 06:19 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 14:09 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 17:30 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 05:52 | Offensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 11:19 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 16:19 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 15:57 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 1 | 09:50 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |