Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 23 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Spezza 54.7% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 52-27 in 79 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 93.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 79.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 91.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 87.9%
87.9%
12.1%
Stepan
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
52
(79 meetings)
27
52
Stepan
Spezza
Last 10: Stepan 4-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
19
Stepan
Spezza
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
14
13
Stepan
Spezza
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
9
20
Stepan
Spezza
29 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
54.4% (7,990)
-7.9%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
56.8% (1,726)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
52.7% (643)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Stepan
Spezza
Home
47.6% (6,608)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Stepan
Spezza
P1
47.5%
55.7%
P2
45.6%
54.4%
P3
46.8%
54.1%
OT
40.7%
51.5%
Final 5 min
47.5%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 1 | 14:50 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 17:51 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 04:03 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 2 | 15:59 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 2 | 15:52 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 12:27 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 08:44 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 3 | 05:15 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 3 | 01:33 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 2 | 19:13 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 1 | 01:04 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2019 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2019 | 1 | 16:55 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 3 | 18:24 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 19, 2017 | 2 | 15:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |