Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Spezza 52.4% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 74.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 67.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 57.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Stepan
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Stepan
Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Stepan
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Stepan
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
53.7% (451)
+0.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
54.3% (92)
-54.3%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
38.2% (34)
+26.5%
On power play, Spezza has a +54.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Spezza is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Stepan
Spezza
Home
54.5% (222)
55.0% (282)
Away
57.2% (222)
50.8% (295)
By Period
Stepan
Spezza
P1
57.5%
53.1%
P2
54.7%
53.2%
P3
55.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
57.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 1 | 14:50 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |