Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +17.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 38.8% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 39.9% vs Spezza 55.8% (-17.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 75.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 53.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 76.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Stepan
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Stepan
Spezza
Last 8: Stepan 2-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Stepan
Spezza
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Spezza
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
4
Stepan
Spezza
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (630)
56.1% (795)
-17.5%
Power Play
45.3% (64)
56.9% (211)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
22.7% (22)
56.3% (190)
-33.6%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +33.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Stepan is 38.8% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Stepan shoots right. Spezza is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (430).
Home / Away
Stepan
Spezza
Home
39.0% (364)
56.6% (532)
Away
38.0% (355)
56.0% (678)
By Period
Stepan
Spezza
P1
39.4%
58.8%
P2
40.6%
59.6%
P3
36.4%
50.4%
OT
12.5%
57.9%
Final 5 min
40.4%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2011 | OT | 01:01 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 4, 2011 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 3 | 10:25 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 3 | 10:12 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 2 | 19:19 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 5, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |