Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.2% vs Thornton 50.8% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 56.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 67.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 56.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Stepan
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Stepan
Thornton
Last 9: Stepan 3-6 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
3
Stepan
Thornton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
Thornton
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (1,155)
49.8% (544)
-1.6%
Power Play
48.2% (193)
54.5% (178)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (174)
46.7% (15)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Stepan is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,064).
Stepan shoots right. Thornton is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Stepan
Thornton
Home
46.4% (774)
54.9% (355)
Away
47.7% (748)
47.1% (382)
By Period
Stepan
Thornton
P1
46.7%
46.0%
P2
46.3%
52.5%
P3
48.1%
55.6%
OT
47.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 17:45 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 1 | 15:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 11:02 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 1 | 17:16 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |