Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.5% vs 47.1%). Look for Kellman on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.7% vs Kellman 47.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 53.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 56.3%
Neutral zone
Kellman 54.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Stepan
Kellman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stepan
Kellman
Last 5: Stepan 3-2 Kellman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Kellman
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kellman
1
2
Stepan
Kellman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Kellman
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Kellman
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (877)
46.6% (223)
+0.7%
Power Play
54.4% (103)
71.4% (7)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (217)
37.5% (8)
+7.7%
On power play, Kellman has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kellman shoots left. Stepan is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Stepan shoots right. Kellman is 52.3% vs right-shot opponents (65).
Home / Away
Stepan
Kellman
Home
50.4% (560)
42.9% (126)
Away
45.1% (637)
51.8% (112)
By Period
Stepan
Kellman
P1
47.4%
48.8%
P2
47.0%
53.4%
P3
48.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Kellman
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 03:22 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 03:15 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 08:40 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |