Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.5% vs 47.4%). Look for Kellman on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Kellman 48.1% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 59.8%
Defensive zone
Kellman 60.3%
Neutral zone
Kellman 57.3%
Result
Joel Kellman favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Stepan
Kellman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stepan
Kellman
Last 5: Stepan 3-2 Kellman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Kellman
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kellman
1
2
Stepan
Kellman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Kellman
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Kellman
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
46.5% (275)
+0.0%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
75.0% (8)
-26.2%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
50.0% (10)
-5.8%
On power play, Kellman has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kellman shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Kellman is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Home / Away
Stepan
Kellman
Home
47.6% (6,608)
42.5% (146)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
52.4% (147)
By Period
Stepan
Kellman
P1
47.5%
48.0%
P2
45.6%
53.3%
P3
46.8%
41.9%
Final 5 min
47.5%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Kellman
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 03:22 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 03:15 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 08:40 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |