Scouting Report
Mark Arcobello holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Arcobello on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Stepan wins 43.8% vs right-shot opponents — Arcobello shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs Arcobello 50.1% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Arcobello leads 14-4 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 87.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 86.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 85.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Stepan
Arcobello
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
14
(18 meetings)
4
14
Stepan
Arcobello
Last 10: Stepan 2-8 Arcobello
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arcobello
1
7
Stepan
Arcobello
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Arcobello
2
3
Stepan
Arcobello
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arcobello
1
4
Stepan
Arcobello
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Arcobello
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
50.0% (858)
-6.5%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
62.1% (58)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
26.1% (23)
+16.9%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arcobello shoots right. Stepan is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Stepan shoots right. Arcobello is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (301).
Home / Away
Stepan
Arcobello
Home
45.6% (629)
52.7% (478)
Away
42.5% (603)
47.5% (461)
By Period
Stepan
Arcobello
P1
44.7%
52.4%
P2
43.7%
51.7%
P3
43.9%
46.4%
OT
40.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.5%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Arcobello
58.0%▲
56.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 18:23 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 10:21 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 06:55 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 09:58 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 14, 2015 | 3 | 06:20 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 14, 2015 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 14, 2015 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 3 | 04:39 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 2 | 04:48 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 1 | 04:08 | Defensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 9, 2014 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Nov 9, 2014 | 1 | 10:19 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |