Scouting Report
Mark Arcobello holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Arcobello on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Arcobello shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Arcobello 50.9% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Arcobello leads 19-5 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 79.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 76.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 78.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 78.7%
78.7%
21.3%
Stepan
Arcobello
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
19
(24 meetings)
5
19
Stepan
Arcobello
Last 10: Stepan 1-9 Arcobello
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arcobello
1
10
Stepan
Arcobello
11 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Stepan
Arcobello
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arcobello
1
6
Stepan
Arcobello
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Arcobello
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
50.6% (1,408)
-4.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
60.8% (130)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
36.8% (57)
+7.4%
On power play, Arcobello has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arcobello shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Arcobello is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (528).
Home / Away
Stepan
Arcobello
Home
47.6% (6,608)
53.2% (745)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
48.9% (850)
By Period
Stepan
Arcobello
P1
47.5%
53.2%
P2
45.6%
51.3%
P3
46.8%
48.4%
OT
40.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Arcobello
58.0%▲
56.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2016 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 2 | 00:38 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 1 | 10:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 1 | 00:48 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 18:23 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 10:21 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 06:55 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 09:58 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 14, 2015 | 3 | 06:20 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 14, 2015 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 14, 2015 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 3 | 04:39 | Neutral | Mark Arcobello |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 2 | 04:48 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Dec 14, 2014 | 1 | 04:08 | Defensive | Mark Arcobello |