Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Read shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.1% vs Read 43.0% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 77.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 50.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 63.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Stepan
Read
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Stepan
Read
Last 8: Stepan 5-3 Read
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Read
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
2
Stepan
Read
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Read
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Read
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (680)
43.0% (244)
+1.9%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
36.4% (33)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
29.8% (57)
34.8% (66)
-5.0%
On power play, Stepan has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Read shoots right. Stepan is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Stepan shoots right. Read is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (127).
Home / Away
Stepan
Read
Home
45.6% (463)
43.4% (166)
Away
43.3% (404)
38.9% (180)
By Period
Stepan
Read
P1
50.2%
41.2%
P2
39.4%
43.1%
P3
45.7%
38.1%
OT
38.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
34.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.5%
Read
44.0%▲
39.5%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2012 | 2 | 11:24 | Defensive | Matt Read |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 1 | 11:30 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 1 | 08:35 | Offensive | Matt Read |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 05:08 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 01:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Matt Read |